All posts by synergy

Which Directions are Home Prices Headed ?

US home prices, according to S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller index, fell for the 7th straight month (-0.42% MoM) leaving the home price index up 2.55% YoY (in January – this data is always very lagged) – the lowest growth since Nov 2019.

“One of the most interesting aspects of January’s report is the continued weakness in home prices on the West Coast, as San Diego and Portland joined San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

“It’s therefore unsurprising that the Southeast (+10.2%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (-1.5%) continues as the weakest.” San Francisco and Seattle are down the most from their highs (New York and Miami are down the least). Home prices in Miami and Tampa are still up over 60% since COVID.

We suspect that is what Powell is hoping for, and judging by mortgage rates, prices have a long way to fall.

Source : https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/delay-your-home-purchase-bob-shiller-warns-prices-slide-7th-straight-month

CFPB Issues HUGE Fine for This Illegal Practice in the Mortgage Industry

March 23 (Reuters) – A Virginia debt collection company has agreed to pay $24 million over allegedly illegal practices, the top U.S. agency for consumer financial protection said on Thursday, adding that the company had violated a previous order.

Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, said Portfolio Recovery Associates had been “caught red handed” in 2015, but had persisted in “intimidation, deception and illegal … tactics” to collect on unsubstantiated and undocumented consumer debt in recent years.

“CFPB orders are not suggestions, and companies cannot ignore them simply because they are large or dominant in the market,” Chopra added. Portfolio Recovery Associates said it had admitted to no wrongdoing.

In 2015 the CFPB ordered Portfolio Recovery Associates to cease collecting on debts without reasonable basis, selling debt, or threatening to sue or suing when it had no intent to prove the claims. The company agreed to pay $27 million to resolve the allegations.

The CFPB on Thursday said the company broke a number of provisions related to that order. The $24 million payment agreement includes a fine, as well as repayment to consumers harmed, pending court approval.

In a statement, Portfolio Recovery Associates said it was committed to dealing fairly and respectfully with its clients.

“Although we have admitted to no wrongdoing as part of the resolution, and we continue to disagree with the CFPB’s characterization of our conduct, we are pleased to have this matter resolved and behind us,” Kevin Stevenson, president and chief executive of parent company PRA Group Inc (PRAA.O), said in a statement.

Source : https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-watchdog-orders-virginia-debt-collector-pay-24-mln-illegal-practices-2023-03-23/

Did Fannie Just Create A New Job Opportunity ?

Fannie Mae Just Created a New Real Estate Career with their New Appraisal Waiver Program

Fannie Mae’s Value Acceptance + Property Data program, set to launch on April 15, 2023, has cast a shadow over the appraisal industry’s future, potentially marking the beginning of the end for licensed appraisers.

The program aims to transform mortgage loans by replacing traditional appraisals with assessments conducted by unlicensed “Property Data Collectors,” and many are questioning whether this is the first step in eliminating appraisers altogether.

Appraisal Waiver Program Explained

Value Acceptance + Property Data expands upon Fannie Mae’s 2017 appraisal waiver program, providing a more extensive data-driven approach to property valuation. The new program combines automated valuation models (AVMs) with additional property data collected by non-licensed inspectors, currently limited to single-unit properties.

Critics argue AVMs cannot replace licensed appraisers’ expertise, and using non-licensed Property Data Collectors raises concerns about assessment quality and consistency.

Property Data Collectors visit properties to perform data collection using one of Fannie Mae’s six approved apps that meet their Property Data Standard. These individuals must identify safety, soundness, or structural integrity issues and items of incomplete construction or renovation. However, they don’t require a license, raising questions about qualifications and industry impact.

Requirements to Become a Property Data Collector

Fannie Mae requires lenders to vet Property Data Collectors by verifying their background, providing professional training, and ensuring they possess the essential knowledge for competent data collection. However, the lack of a licensing requirement leaves the profession largely unregulated, with the scope of “professional training” left to the lender. This absence of regulation raises concerns about data collection quality, consistency, conflicts of interest, and biased assessments.

Lenders must ensure data collectors comply with fair lending laws and deliver unbiased, accurate results. Lenders are required to ensure that Property Data Collectors have received Fair Housing training, the scope of which has also been left entirely to the lender. However, without standardized licensing, maintaining consistent quality across the profession may prove difficult, potentially resulting in inaccurate assessments and skewed property values.

Potential Impacts on the Housing Market and Appraisal Profession

As more loans bypass traditional appraisals, property value inaccuracies may increase, leading to higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, increased default risk, and possibly another housing market crash like in 2008. The absence of a strong foundation in property values could erode trust in the mortgage system, impacting the entire housing market.

The introduction of unlicensed property inspectors in the Value Acceptance + Property Data program could signify the appraisal profession’s decline. As more loans are processed without licensed appraisers, the demand for their services may diminish, jeopardizing their careers and livelihoods.

In conclusion, Fannie Mae’s Value Acceptance + Property Data program poses a risk to the mortgage industry and licensed appraisers’ future. By replacing traditional appraisals with unlicensed property inspector assessments, this program threatens property value foundations and could potentially destabilize the housing market. As the industry navigates this new program’s implications, the future of mortgage lending and the appraisal profession hangs in the balance.

Source: https://www.skylineschool.net/post/fannie-mae-just-created-a-new-real-estate-career-with-their-new-appraisal-waiver-program

Latest Developments on VA Loan Appraisals

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed HR 7735, Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Benefit Act of 2022, a measure that would direct the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to update their regulations on appraisals. They would be required to consider when an appraisal is not necessary, and when a desktop appraisal should be utilized.

Introduced by Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois, HR 7735 would enhance VA’s home loan program by streamlining the home buying process for veterans and their families. HR 7735 would ease the home buying process by allowing the nation’s veterans to use the same modern purchaser tools that non-veteran buyers already use.

The VA home loan program has afforded millions of servicemembers, veterans, and their families the opportunity to become homeowners, a benefit that has empowered U.S. veterans with the resources they need to purchase, retain, and adapt homes at a competitive interest rate, and helps to ease the transition from active duty to civilian life. While VA’s home loan program has historically performed well and assisted many nationwide in achieving homeownership, it has not kept pace with today’s homebuying practices in certain ways. Veterans using a VA home loan are required to have an in-person appraisal performed by a VA-approved appraiser prior to purchasing their home. However, there are often lengthy wait times for the relatively few VA-approved appraisers to become available to perform these appraisals, resulting in in veterans being forced to wait longer to complete the homebuying process, and move into their new home.

“The bill will encourage important reforms to the agency’s requirements regarding when an appraisal is necessary, how appraisals are conducted, and who is eligible to conduct an appraisal,” said Bob Broeksmit, CMB, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). “This legislation is an important first step towards broad modernization of VA appraisal processes and could make veterans’ home purchase offers more viable in today’s competitive housing market.”

Now that HR 7735 has passed the house, its companion bill in the Senate, S4208, the Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Act of 2022, introduced in May 2022 by Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska awaits passage.

“VA home loans have given millions of veterans and their families the opportunity to purchase a home,” said Rep. Bost. “Yet, on average, veterans wait longer and pay more during the closing process due to VA’s out-of-date appraisal requirements. That’s why I am introducing the Improving Access to the VA Home Loan Act of 2022 with my friend, Senator Sullivan. This bill will make sure that veterans are not unfairly disadvantaged during the home buying process and allow for a modern, digital appraisal process, which will get them into their new home faster.”

Source:https://themreport.com/daily-dose/09-15-2022/house-passes-bill-modernize-va-appraisals

Mortgage Rates Are Headed in Which Direction Now ?

Things Are About to Get Even More Interesting For Rates

It’s certainly already been an interesting year for financial markets–especially for housing and interest rates. But most of what’s happened over the past 8 months could be thought of as the more predictable phase of the post-pandemic market cycle. It’s what happens next that’ll be more interesting.

How could anyone say that the last 8 months have been predictable when rates have risen at the fastest pace in decades to the highest levels in more than 14 years? It’s true, the pace and the outright levels defied most predictions. But the predictable phenomenon was more of a general truth that we knew we’d contend with in late 2021. Here it is in a nutshell:

The Fed shifted gears on bond buying in late 2021, announcing a gradual wind-down of new bond purchases to be followed by a series of rate hikes. This shift from the Fed was always likely to coincide with rising rates and lower stock prices. The only uncertainty was the size, speed, and staying power of the shift as the Fed attempted to strike a balance between combatting inflation without crippling the economy.

See Rates from Lenders in Your Area

June’s reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI, a key government inflation report) was the only major curve ball of the year–generally thought to be a byproduct of the Ukraine War’s effect on commodities prices.  It made for a rapid reassessment of the Fed’s rate hike outlook as seen in the chart below.

The blue line is the market’s expectation of the Fed Funds Rate after the September meeting.  Note the big leap in June.  To be fair, July’s inflation report caused another jump, but it fell back quickly to the previous 2.875% range and has been there ever since.  

Longer term rate expectations (for the December meeting as well as next June’s meeting) have had more ebbs and flows due to the shift in the economic outlook.  Weaker economy = lower long-term rates, all other things being equal.  These longer-term expectations share more similarities with longer-term rates like those for mortgages.

Rates recovered nicely in July as markets feared recession, but rebounded sharply in August as data suggested a much more resilient economy.  This was especially true of the jobs report in early August as well as the ISM Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) which are like more timely, more highly regarded versions of GDP broken out by manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.  

PMI data has been responsible for several noticeable jumps toward higher rates over the past month.  The same was true this week when the non-manufacturing (or simply “services”) version came out on Tuesday morning. The services PMI was expected to move DOWN to 55.1, but instead moved UP to 56.9, effectively keeping it in “strong” historical territory whereas the market thought it was trending back down to the “moderate” level.

That’s all just a fancy way of saying that, despite GDP numbers being in negative territory, and despite aggressive Fed rate hikes, other economic indicators suggest the economy continues to expand.  The PMI data helped push US rates higher at a faster pace than overseas rates as US traders returned from the 3-day weekend, but European rates took the lead on Thursday after the European Central Bank hiked rates and warned about upside risks to the inflation outlook.

While US economic data is certainly responsible for a good amount of upward pressure in rates recently, Europe and European Central Bank policies have been adding fuel to the fire.  This can be seen in the faster rise in EU bond yields. Incidentally, the initial jump in the blue line (US 10yr) in early August coincided with several strong economic reports in the US: ISM PMIs and the Jobs Report.

Long story short, rates have topped out twice and the market knows what it looks like to see high rates in conjunction with a strong economy.  The bigger question is the extent to which inflation is calming down.  After all, inflation is the reason the Fed continues to say it’s willing to attempt to restrain economic activity via rate hikes.  Looking at the year-over-year chart, it looks like we have a long way to go for the Fed to get core inflation back down to its target.

But year-over-year data is just that.  It includes the past 12 months–many of which contribute a massive amount to a total that will inevitably be much smaller even if the economy simply maintains the current monthly pace of inflation.  In fact, core inflation only needs to move down 0.1% in the next report to put year-over-year numbers on pace to hit the target range.  Once the Fed is reasonably sure that’s happening, it can begin to consider a friendlier shift in the monetary policy that has recently put so much upward pressure on rates.

And that brings us to why things are about to get interesting.  Summer is unofficially over.  School is back in session.  Traders are back at their desks.  And next week brings the next installment of the CPI data.  6 short business days later, we’ll get the next Fed policy announcement as well as an updated rate hike projection from each Fed member.

All of the above is made all the more interesting due to the fact that the Fed–by its own admission–has no idea how much it will hike rates in 2 weeks, and that it will only be able to decide after it sees economic data.  Given that CPI is by far and away the most relevant piece of economic data between now and then AND that the Fed has a policy of abstaining from public comment starting 11 days before a meeting (aka today was the last day of Fed comments until 9/21), the market’s reaction to next Tuesday’s CPI data could be tremendously interesting indeed. 

Source:https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09102022

Mortgage Compliance – What You Need to Know About Redlining

Fair Lending compliance is a hot button issue, making it critically important that your institution has a clear sense of its fair lending risk exposure.

From the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s (OCC) supervisory priorities and speeches from officials at the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) advisory on the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) and the Justice Department’s fair lending initiative, all eyes are on fair lending.

While Fair Lending compliance can be complex, having a clearer sense of your risk exposure can make it simpler.

Uncovering fair lending risk to build a stronger fair lending program

The first thing to remember is that Fair Lending covers every stage of the crediting process — from marketing all the way to servicing.

Second, Fair Lending applies to all loans — not just HMDA loans.

And third, regardless of whether staff is officially responsible for compliance efforts, they are still responsible for supporting Fair Lending efforts and complying with Fair Lending laws and regulations.

Here are the seven primary Fair Lending risks.

Compliance Management Program Risk

Is your Fair Lending Compliance Management Program (CMP) able to effectively manage and mitigate your Fair Lending risk? The strength of your CMP needs to be commensurate with the inherent risk profile of your institution.

Redlining Risk

Redlining continues to be a major regulatory hot topic. But do you know your Redlining risk? In today’s regulatory environment, you need to.

Marketing Risk

Fair Lending extends to marketing. Financial institutions need to ensure they are marketing their services equally to similarly situated individuals. One question to consider as you assess your marketing risk is: Are we receiving applications consistent with our market demographics?

Steering Risk

As you assess steering risk, you will be looking to determine if similarly situated individuals are treated similarly. Any evaluation of steering risk will benefit from the insight provided by Fair Lending data analysis. One question to consider: Are we directing certain applicants to particular products? By analyzing your data, you’ll be able to identify any disparities.

Underwriting Risk

Underwriting risk is key area of Fair Lending risk. When analyzing your data, pay attention to the number and rate of originations and denials. As you assess your risk, look for any vague or subjective underwriting criteria or other potential for discretion in the process.

Pricing Risk

Are all similarly situated applicants receiving similar pricing? If not, you may have pricing risk exposure. As you analyze your data, you’ll be looking for incidence of rate spread, and disparities in the pricing charged. 

Servicing Risk

Consumer complaints are common during servicing, and consumer complaints can trigger regulatory attention. In analyzing your servicing risk, ensure that similarly situated individuals are being treated consistently. You’ll also want to pay attention to any disparities in loss mitigation servicing options, decision processing times, and collections processes. And be advised — even if your bank outsources servicing, you are still responsible for that third party vendor’s Fair Lending compliance.

Fair Lending is a top priority for regulators and regulatory scrutiny of Fair Lending will heighten. 

Are you aware of the Fair Lending risk in your financial institution?

Source:https://www.ncontracts.com/nsight-blog/7-fair-lending-risks-you-need-to-know-right-now

Thinking of a FinTech Solution for Your Mortgage Business ?

How Mortgage Lenders Should Evaluate Fintech Solutions

BLOG VIEW: As the mortgage industry continues to face the challenge of increasing origination costs – not to mention margin compression and rising interest rates – it’s becoming imperative for lenders to evaluate their current cost to produce, from both a technology and personnel standpoint.

Now is the time when CEOs and executives should be examining their technology production costs in comparison to their labor expenses with the aim of discovering ways to originate more with fewer employees and increased efficiencies.

Technology cannot solve for all, and lenders still need human expertise. So has the growing fintech stack really increased efficiencies and reduced origination costs? Or are lenders adding to their fintech stack without any real return on investment?

The following checklist can help lenders determine if the solution being considered is worth the price.

Does it align with your business strategy?

Established organizations always have dependable, tested and proven procedures in place and do not often embrace new technologies quickly. However, the technology driven world we live in today demands innovation. Therefore, if a lender’s business strategy includes scalability and sustainability, it is critical that it evaluate its current fintech solution to ensure it aligns with strategic initiatives.

Does it utilize data for sales strategy optimization?

If a company doesn’t have adequate computational resources, it won’t be able to monitor all the critical customer-facing activities like organizing, managing and strategically using large datasets to enhance sales procedures.

Does it have a user-friendly interface?

You’ve likely heard the expression that “time is money.” A fintech solution that is difficult to navigate or does not have features that reduce the time it takes to fulfill a loan will not achieve the end goal of reducing the cost to originate.

Does it offer built in compliance monitoring?

It’s challenging to originate loans in this heavily regulated industry. The technology under consideration should track compliance to the various rules such as initial disclosure, issuance of CD, tolerance cures, etc. It is imperative that a lender’s fintech solution help manage regulatory standards now, to avoid undesired outcomes later.

Does it support a fully digital origination process?

A fully digitized loan origination process allows mortgage bankers to immediately issue agency approval while talking to the borrower, which saves time and allows an increase in productivity on the number of loans that can be processed per day.

Does it offer a guided workflow?

There are several steps that take a loan from verification to approval faster. These steps can take over 30 days because of the validation necessary to complete the process accurately. When a fintech solution has a guided workflow, it allows automatic approval where possible and has built in tutorials to help both seasoned and new mortgage bankers streamline their procedures for faster completion.

Does it incorporate sales strategies in CRM?

Sales activities drive revenue and therefore the habits of loan officers are critical to meet and exceed revenue targets. When a fintech solution incorporates sales strategies in a lender’s CRM system, all customer data is organized to inform the highest value sales activities for the day based on previous actions and the stage of the customer journey.

Does it offer a single data warehouse?

When a fintech solution has one database for originations, processing, funding, marketing and sales activities, the lender will have a streamlined process that reduces errors and makes historical reporting and future projections easier to prepare.

The global fintech adoption rate rose to 64% in 2020. This reveals how important fintech technologies have become to the mortgage industry. We can expect that rate to be closer to 100% over the next couple years as the industry pivots to more online solutions.

Whether your company is part of the 64% that already have a solution or the 36% that will, it is critical to accurately assess every solution in order to get the most value for your investment. 

Lenders that evaluate fintech solutions using this checklist will align their business strategy with their sales strategy and create a seamless workflow that promotes employee engagement, agency and regulatory compliance, faster loan processing, and satisfied customers.

Source:https://mortgageorb.com/how-mortgage-lenders-should-evaluate-fintech-solutions

Do You Know The Latest HMDA Requirements?

HMDA purpose and coverage

The federal Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) was passed in 1975 to address concerns that lenders were contributing to the decline of some urban areas by failing to offer adequate home financing to qualified applicants on reasonable terms and conditions, in violation of their bank charters. [12 United States Code §§2801 et seq.]

From 1988 to 1992, substantial changes were made to the HMDA under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Involvement Act (FDICIA). FIRREA and FDICIA required independent mortgage lenders who met certain loan volume criteria to collect HMDA data. Thus, federal and state banks, credit unions, savings associations and independent mortgage lenders can be required by the HMDA to compile home loan application and closed loan data.

HMDA rules are promulgated under Regulation C (Reg C). [12 Code of Federal Regulations §§1003 et seq.]

In 2015, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) made changes to the HMDA and Reg C according to the requirements of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act). Clarifying changes were made in 2017. Generally, these changes modified the types of institutions and transactions subject to HMDA and expanded the scope of the data required to be collected.

Modifications to reportable data

HMDA data added to reporting requirements in 2018 includes:

a) the property address;

b) the borrower or applicant’s age;

c) the borrower or applicant’s credit score;

d) total points and fees charged at the time of origination;

e) the total borrower-paid origination charges;

f) the total discount points paid to the lender;

g) the amount of lender credits;

h) the interest rate;

i) the term (in months) of any prepayment period;

j) the debt-to-income ratio (DTI);

k) the combined loan-to-value ratio (LTV);

l) the loan term (in months);

m) the introductory interest rate period (in months);

n) the presence of terms resulting in potential negative amortization;

o) the property value;

p) whether the property is manufactured housing;

q) the ownership of land when the property is manufactured housing;

r) the total number of units related to the property;

s) the total number of income-restricted units related to the property;

t) the lending channel, e.g., retail or broker;

u) the originator’s NMLS ID;

v) the automated underwriting system (AUS) used to evaluation the application, and the result generated by the AUS;

w) whether the loan is a reverse mortgage;

x) whether the loan is an open-end loan; and

y) whether the transaction is a business-purpose loan. [12 CFR §1003.4(a)]

Why more criteria? For example, the current HMDA data can tell regulators whether a loan exceeds high-cost loan thresholds, and by how much. Regulators can further break the data down to show how often APRs exceed the high-cost loan thresholds for different ethnicities and races, and pinpoint a potentially discriminatory pattern.

Source:https://journal.firsttuesday.us/mlo-mentor-the-home-mortgage-disclosure-act/82209/

Mortgage Fraud – Beware of This Bias

Underwriters are presented with 1,500 loans marked as “fraudulent” and they have to find the one that is genuinely fraudulent — a near impossible task.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

a) Repetition bias happens when mortgage underwriters have to wade through thousands of applications that have been marked as fraudulent by automated machinery — most of which are not actually fraudulent.

b) Lenders typically flag 40% of loans that come in with at least one fraud flag to review, so underwriters are essentially left in charge of finding a needle in a haystack.

c) This issue will only become more exacerbated as we enter a tighter housing market in 2022; applicants are more likely to fudge their income or their credit score to get their loan approved.

d) As the mortgage industry consolidates and layoffs begin, there may be fewer underwriters and analysts in the industry to sift through all these loans marked as fraudulent.

In the housing bubble era, fraud was running rampant all across the mortgage industry and the entire economy suffered the consequences. 

In the run-up of the crisis, underwriters facilitated wide-scale fraud by knowingly misreporting key loan characteristics, according to Griffin’s analysis. Credit rating agencies inflated their ratings on both mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), while originators also engaged in mortgage fraud to increase market share, and appraisers would inflate appraisals in order to gain business. 

The industry changed drastically after the financial crisis and with the creation of the Dodd-Frank Act. Entities and mortgage professionals are concerned about protecting themselves from fraud. Today, many are wary of fraud and fraudulent applications, which could end up costing their companies a pretty penny. But the industry is still struggling to establish an efficient system for identifying fraudulent loans. 

Point Predictive Chief Strategist Frank McKenna said that while mortgage lenders have implemented additional tools to identify mortgage fraud, problems related to mortgage applications are increasing at an alarming rate due to “repetition bias”, often causing hundreds of thousands in losses.

Repetition bias happens when mortgage underwriters have to wade through thousands of applications that have been marked as fraudulent by automated machinery. In some cases, the rate is 1,000 non-fraudulent applications (marked as fraudulent) for one truly fraudulent application. Repetition Bias creeps in when underwriters are quickly scanning and approving applications that were marked as fraudulent and they miss that one genuinely fraudulent application. Even one fraudulent mortgage that is approved can cost lenders hundreds of thousands of dollars.

A fraudulent application occurs when a borrower lies about their credibility and financial status by either fudging their income, credit score, or anything that might make them look more trustworthy. Today’s lenders use various approaches for identifying these fraudulent loans, mainly with automated machinery, but most of these systems are not smart enough to accurately analyze applicants.

“Lenders flag 40% of loans with at least one fraud flag to review,” McKenna said, “and sometimes much more than that. So, underwriters are essentially left in charge of finding a needle in a haystack.” 

An overwhelming amount of loans are being flagged as fraudulent and these all need to be reviewed by underwriters or fraud analysts. After reviewing a hundred or so applicants and finding out they are all non fraudulent, it creates a false-positive bias. However, this makes underwriters and analysts more susceptible to missing genuinely fraudulent loans. 

For example, applications can be flagged as fraudulent because the listed social security number (SSN) is also associated with other names; yet, only 1 in every 750 applications flagged with this are genuinely fraudulent. Oftentimes, the SSN appears on other applications with different addresses, but only one out of every 1,000 is actually fraudulent. Even more often, the SSN is randomized issued after 2011, though, only one out of every 1,500 of these are fraudulent applications. 

“It has the exact opposite effect of what a lender would want,” McKenna said. “You think by presenting more flags means you’ll catch more fraud, but actually the reverse is true. You create a bias towards the fact there’s no fraud.”

The amount in losses lenders could potentially face from accepting fraudulent loans is going to vary based on the lender’s portfolio, and lenders don’t typically release their fraud loss numbers, whether they’re public or private. However, McKenna estimates that slightly less than 1% of all mortgage originations are fraudulent. 

“I think the estimates that are done by industry experts indicate that fraud probably runs about 80 basis points so if you were to take the mortgage originations…” McKenna said, trying to calculate a rough estimate in his head, “I think about 80 basis points is kind of the standard calculation, so if there’s $2.6 trillion in originations it’s a very big number.”

McKenna believes this issue will only become more exacerbated as we enter a tighter housing market in 2022 where refinances have dried out and purchase originations are in. As it becomes harder to purchase a home — with bidding wars, rising prices, low inventory, and higher rates — applicants are more likely to fudge their income or their credit score to get their loan approved.

“With refinances, you’ve been in the house and have been paying their mortgage,” McKenna explained. “In tighter markets, which are typically purchase markets, there is more risk involved — especially with first-time home buyers.”

“You have a lot more people in the industry who need to keep making money, [brokers, lenders, …etc] so they want to get creative on how to close deals,” McKenna continued. “So that also plays a huge factor in increasing the risk of fraud.” 

As the mortgage industry consolidates and layoffs begin, there may be fewer underwriters and analysts in the industry to sift through all these loans marked as fraudulent. However, McKenna presents an alternative mechanism that is more selective and precise when it comes to identifying fraud. 

Point Predictive’s Mortgage Pass reduces false positives by 65% or more over current solutions. Mortgage Pass is a machine-learning AI that’s taught much in the same way that a human learns, where it’s shown lots of examples of fraud and lots of examples of non-fraud to differentiate. 

“It’s able to differentiate when a pattern exists on a problem that doesn’t exist on a good loan,” McKenna said. “So it is a version of artificial intelligence because it’s being trained with lots of data.”

“I wouldn’t recommend lenders discard any processes they currently do,” McKenna added, “but they can layer this process over what they do.”

Currently, much of the burden and responsibility for identifying fraud falls on underwriters that are already understaffed. 

“Layoffs in the mortgage industry are going to happen,” McKenna said. “So mortgage lenders are gonna be looking at ways to reduce costs. They’re going to have to kind of look at reducing false positives as part of that cost reduction.” 

Source:https://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/repetition-bias-leads-increased-mortgage-fraud?utm_source=National+Mortgage+Professional&utm_campaign=ed7a5d97c3-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_03_03_07_03&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_4a91388747-ed7a5d97c3-71467005

New Lending Rules on Condominiums Take Effect

Fannie and Freddie tighten condo-lending rules. Details vary, but they generally won’t back single-unit condo loans if a building has deferred maintenance issues.

ORLANDO, Fla. – In response to the Surfside tragedy, Freddie Mac announced last week that it would immediately start taking a closer look at a condo development’s maintenance issues before approving individual loans. The change follows a similar announcement made earlier by Fannie Mae. The two mortgage giants back over half of all U.S. loans.

The new requirements can be complex – Freddie Mac posted its announcement online – but they will generally deny condo and co-op unit loans if the building has deferred maintenance issues, special assessments to fix deferred issues or other problems.

All changes announced in Freddie Mac’s bulletin “will be effective for Mortgages with Settlement Dates on or after Feb. 28, 2022.” Fannie Mae’s earlier bulletin says its rules will be “effective for whole loans purchased on or after Jan. 1, 2022, and for loans delivered into MBS pools with issue dates on or after Jan. 1, 2022.”

Both policies “remain in effect until further notice.”

As part of the process, Fannie Mae lenders will send condo managers a five-page form that must be completely filled out. Under the section that covers insurance types and amounts, it even includes instructions, such as “Do NOT enter ‘contact agent.’” The regulations apply to all condominiums with five or more units, even if that complex is otherwise exempt from review.

While individual condo buyers may immediately face hurdles getting a loan approved, the tighter policies could have a longer-term impact on entire condominium complexes. Even condo associations without concerning maintenance issues could find that unit owners – without the backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – will have a harder time selling their property if the new paperwork isn’t filled out correctly and returned promptly.

“Loans secured by units in condo and co-op projects with significant deferred maintenance or in projects that have received a directive from a regulatory authority or inspection agency to make repairs due to unsafe conditions are not eligible for purchase,” Fannie Mae states in its Oct. 13 announcement. And those projects “will remain ineligible until the required repairs have been made and documented.”

Fannie Mae considers acceptable documentation to be “a satisfactory engineering or inspection report, certificate of occupancy, or other substantially similar documentation that shows the repairs have been completed in a manner that resolves the building’s safety, soundness, structural integrity, or habitability concerns.”

While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s changes apply nationwide, Florida may feel a greater impact due to the number of condo buildings across the state.

In addition, condo complexes that have deferred maintenance issues or one of the other problems noted won’t be approved for Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed loans until those issues have been fixed.

Source:https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2021/12/new-lending-rules-threaten-some-condo-sales

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